Objective 2

Objective
2	Describe the likelihood of an outcome, using such terms as likely, unlikely, expect, probably.

Problem

My hidden spinner mat is more likely to land on blue than yellow or green, but it will probably land on red a lot.

Can you draw a spinner like mine?
Twirl the spinner several times to check.

Manipulative

Materials: paper bags, color tiles.

In the first bag place enough red and yellow tiles so that it is likely you would draw a red tile.
In the second bag place enough blue and green tiles so that it is unlikely you would draw a green tile.
In the third bag place enough tiles of any color so that you would expect to draw a red.
In the fourth bag place only green and blue tiles so that you will probably draw a blue.
Try drawing several tiles (and then replace them) from each bag and see if it works.
Write a sentence to explain how you would know if you are likely to draw a red tile from a bag.
Write a sentence to explain how you would know if you should expect to draw a green tile from a bag.

Game

Materials: 3 blank six-sided dice, color tiles

Create three dice like the ones shown.
Race against a friend. Take turns selecting any one dice and rolling it. See who can be the first to build the first ten tiles in this pattern:

Adaptations:

Add a fourth die to the game, which has 5 blue sides, and 1 yellow side.
Allow players to construct their own patterns of these forms: AAB, ABC, ABA, ABB.