Objective 
15 Calculate theoretical probability, using numbers between 0 and 1.
Problem
  The theoretical probability of rolling a 1 is 0.125, of rolling a 2 is 0.25, of rolling a 3 is 0.25 and of rolling a 5 is 0.375. You can only roll a 1, 2, 3 or 5 on this die.

How many sides are there? How many sides have a 1? a 2? a 3? a 5?

Manipulative
  Materials: deck of cards (2 through 10 in all suits).

  • Draw five or more cards from the deck (up to 10 cards in all) and lay them out on a table.
  • Construct a spinner which has an equal number of spaces as there are cards. Write the number for each card on one of the spaces in the spinner.
  • Calculate the theoretical probability for each type of card, i.e., for each possible value. For example, calculate the theoretical probability of drawing or spinning a '2'.
  • Construct an experiment to check the similarity of the experimental probabilities of the spinner and the cards.

      
Game
  Materials: dice face cards.
 
  • Play a game of rummy (2 or 3 players).

  • Deal each player 6 cards from a well shuffled deck.
 
  • Take turns drawing either from the discard pile or from the fresh deck, exchanging cards in your hand, until one player has the cards which represent the net for a 6-sided die which has:

    • round 1: a probability of rolling a 1 as 0.5
    • round 2: a probability of rolling a 2 as 0.5 and of rolling a 3 as 0.5
    • round 3: an equal probability of rolling a 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6.
    • round 4: a probability of 0.333 for each of the even numbers 2 through 6.
    • round 5: the sum of the faces as 21.
    • round 6: a probability of rolling a 1 as 0.167, of rolling a 3 as 0.5 and of rolling a 5 as 0.333.
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