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Pizza for Jack? |
2004-09-16 |
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Grace pose la question :
Jack is playing pool with Jim for $1 a game. He has only $2 and decides to play until he goes broke or has $5, at which point he will quit and go out for a pizza with Jim(Dutch treat). Jack knows from past experience that he beats Jim 60% of the time. What is the probability that Jack will get to eat pizza? Hints: Let A be the 6x6 matrix defined by A=[aij], where aij is the probability that Jack will have $(i-1)after one game is he starts with $(j-1). For example, a23 - .40 since there is a 40% probability that Jack will end up with $1 after a game is he starts the game with $2 (If Jack wins 605 of the time, he must lose 40% of the time). Also, for example, a52 = 0 since there is no way jack can have $4 after one game if he had $1 at the beginning of the game. Since Jack will stop if he goes broke or accumulates $5, a11 and a66 are both 1.
Let x0 = [0 0 1 0 0 0 ] transposed, which we interpret as saying that initially Jack has $2 with a probability 1. Then Ax0 will represent the porbability of each amount of money, $0-$5, after one game. What is the probability that Jack will be able to eat pizza by computing Akx0 for large k and finding a limiting value.
Penny Nom lui répond. |
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